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Authors: Hana Ševčíková, Leontine Alkema, Adrian Raftery
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bayesTFR: An R package for Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate
Reference: Vol. 43, Issue 1, Jul 2011
Submitted 2010-10-03, Accepted 2011-07-06
Type: Article
Abstract:

The bayesTFR package for R provides a set of functions to produce probabilistic projections of the total fertility rate (TFR) for all countries. In the model, a random walk with drift is used to project the TFR during the fertility transition, using a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the parameters of the drift term. The TFR is modeled with a first order autoregressive process during the post-transition phase. The computationally intensive part of the projection model is a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for estimating the parameters of the drift term. This article summarizes the projection model and describes the basic steps to generate probabilistic projections, as well as other functionalities such as projecting aggregate outcomes and dealing with missing values.

Paper: [download]
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bayesTFR: An R package for Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate
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Supplements: [download]
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bayesTFR_1.4-1.tar.gz: R source package
(application/x-gzip, 3.7 MB)
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bayesDem_1.3-1.tar.gz: R source package
(application/x-gzip, 168 KB)
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v43i01.R: R example code from the paper
(application/octet-stream, 3.2 KB)
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my_tfr_file.txt: Supplementary example file
(text/plain, 54 Bytes)
Resources: BibTeX | OAI
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under the licenses
Paper: Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License
Code: GNU General Public License (at least one of version 2 or version 3) or a GPL-compatible license.
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