Published by the Foundation for Open Access Statistics Editors-in-chief: Bettina Grün, Torsten Hothorn, Rebecca Killick, Edzer Pebesma, Achim Zeileis    ISSN 1548-7660; CODEN JSSOBK
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Authors: Hana Ševčíková, Leontine Alkema, Adrian Raftery
Title: bayesTFR: An R package for Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate
Abstract: The bayesTFR package for R provides a set of functions to produce probabilistic projections of the total fertility rate (TFR) for all countries. In the model, a random walk with drift is used to project the TFR during the fertility transition, using a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the parameters of the drift term. The TFR is modeled with a first order autoregressive process during the post-transition phase. The computationally intensive part of the projection model is a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for estimating the parameters of the drift term. This article summarizes the projection model and describes the basic steps to generate probabilistic projections, as well as other functionalities such as projecting aggregate outcomes and dealing with missing values.

Page views:: 6300. Submitted: 2010-10-03. Published: 2011-07-23.
Paper: bayesTFR: An R package for Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate     Download PDF (Downloads: 4606)
bayesTFR_1.4-1.tar.gz: R source package Download (Downloads: 888; 3MB)
bayesDem_1.3-1.tar.gz: R source package Download (Downloads: 860; 167KB)
v43i01.R: R example code from the paper Download (Downloads: 965; 3KB)
my_tfr_file.txt: Supplementary example file Download (Downloads: 1038; 54B)

DOI: 10.18637/jss.v043.i01

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Paper: Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License
Code: GNU General Public License (at least one of version 2 or version 3) or a GPL-compatible license.