Published by the Foundation for Open Access Statistics Editors-in-chief: Bettina Grün, Torsten Hothorn, Rebecca Killick, Edzer Pebesma, Achim Zeileis    ISSN 1548-7660; CODEN JSSOBK
Authors: Hana Ševčíková, Adrian E. Raftery
Title: bayesPop: Probabilistic Population Projections
Abstract: We describe bayesPop, an R package for producing probabilistic population projections for all countries. This uses probabilistic projections of total fertility and life expectancy generated by Bayesian hierarchical models. It produces a sample from the joint posterior predictive distribution of future age- and sex-specific population counts, fertility rates and mortality rates, as well as future numbers of births and deaths. It provides graphical ways of summarizing this information, including trajectory plots and various kinds of probabilistic population pyramids. An expression language is introduced which allows the user to produce the predictive distribution of a wide variety of derived population quantities, such as the median age or the old age dependency ratio. The package produces aggregated projections for sets of countries, such as UN regions or trading blocs. The methodology has been used by the United Nations to produce their most recent official population projections for all countries, published in the World Population Prospects.

Page views:: 3922. Submitted: 2013-10-16. Published: 2016-12-06.
Paper: bayesPop: Probabilistic Population Projections     Download PDF (Downloads: 2200)
bayesPop_6.0-3.tar.gz: R source package Download (Downloads: 193; 3MB)
v75i05.R: R replication code Download (Downloads: 252; 7KB)

DOI: 10.18637/jss.v075.i05

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Paper: Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License
Code: GNU General Public License (at least one of version 2 or version 3) or a GPL-compatible license.